Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Intercept Pharma Could Follow Triple With a Double

Usually the best stocks to buy have not already tripled in value within the past six months.

But then there's Intercept Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Nasdaq: ICPT).

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This biotech has attracted a lot of attention this year because of its innovative and promising drug, obeticholic acid (OCA). In trials, OCA has proven effective in treating patients suffering from a liver disease known as nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). This chronic liver disease can cause inflammation and scarring, which may lead to cirrhosis, liver failure, and death.

In fact, it was the Jan. 9 news that a National Institutes of Health (NIH) study was stopped early because it had found that OCA satisfied its requirements in improving the condition of the 283 test patients that propelled ICPT stock up more than 280% in one day.

That the trial was able to determine the OCA's effectiveness one year sooner than expected was a great sign that Intercept Pharma had come up with a breakthrough drug. And in the world of biotech, there's nothing investors would rather hear.

On the day the news broke, Intercept Pharma jumped from $72.39 to $275.87. And it kept on going the next day, all the way to $445.83 - a 515% increase in two days. From there the stock has had a crazy ride, however, gyrating between $218 and $462.

That's because of some concern that another reason the trial was halted was because some patients showed elevated levels of cholesterol. The NIH panel wanted to stop the treatments to see if OCA was the cause.

stocks to buy

So now we have a war between the ICPT bulls and the ICPT bears.

In addition to the cholesterol issue, the bears note the steep drop in earnings Intercept Pharma reported in its most recent quarter, its stagnant revenue growth, and, most recently, that Chief Executive Officer Mark Pruzanski sold 10,000 shares of his company's stock on June 2.

Short sellers took an interest in the stock in May, with short interest rising 34% in one month. About 5.7% of ICPT shares are sold short.

But the bulls still see Intercept Pharma as a stock to buy. And wait until you see who's been buying...

Stocks to Buy: Why Intercept Pharma (Nasdaq: ICPT) Can Double

First of all, it's important to note that a significant subset of investors fall into the bull category - hedge fund managers. In the first quarter of the year - after ICPT popped 300% - hedge fund managers as a group increased their holdings in the stock 4.46%, when you'd expect a mad rush of cashing out to lock in the huge gain.

According to the hedge fund data site Whale Wisdom, 96 funds created new positions in ICPT in the first quarter, while only 14 closed out their positions.

RELATED: Another tiny biotech has a major FDA-related announcement coming in July. We've been tracking this company for seven months and estimate gains as high as 2,133%. Go here for details.

Analysts, too, are extraordinarily bullish on Intercept Pharmaceuticals. Their consensus price on Intercept Pharma is currently $558.33, with a high target of $693 - more than double the current price. Even the low target of $493 represents a 68% gain from where ICPT was trading Wednesday, at $292 a share.

What's more, four out of the six analysts who cover ICPT rate it a "strong buy," with the other two rating it a "buy."

When you see a level of consensus on a stock that pronounced, something awfully compelling must be driving it.

What the Bulls Realize about Intercept Pharma

The bulls recognize that most of the negative news on this stock is really no big deal. The CEO probably was just taking some profits following an amazing run-up in the stock price. The weak earnings of recent quarters are no way to measure the future earnings of a biotech nearing approval of a blockbuster drug, as we shall see in a moment.

And the biggest concern, the cholesterol issue and whether Intercept Pharma properly disclosed what was going on, is likely to blow over.

"We believe [the cholesterol issue] is much ado about nothing and has created a buying opportunity," Wedbush analyst Liana Moussatos wrote in a recent research note. "Intercept is pioneering a first-in-class treatment for cholestatic liver diseases and in every Phase 2 and Phase 3 trial tested, OCA has shown efficacy. That NIDDK stopped the Phase 2b NASH trial one year early due to efficacy suggests that OCA is a breakthrough treatment."

Another piece of news reinforcing a positive view on OCA came last week when the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted fast-track status to OCA - a designation reserved for particularly promising treatments - for a second liver disease, primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). With PBC, the bile ducts in the liver, which aid in food digestion, are slowly destroyed.

In addition to NASH and PBC, Intercept has also begun a study of the drug for treatment of alcoholic hepatitis, another liver disease. The ability to treat more diseases will greatly expand the market for OCA, should FDA approval be received for each one.

"We project launch in late 2015 and gross peak annual sales could reach about $2.4 billion in 2023," Moussatos said in a note to clients.

In 2013, Intercept Pharma's total revenue was just $1.62 million. So let's just say OCA would have a pretty dramatic impact in ICPT's earnings - and its stock price.

That many don't see Intercept Pharma as one of the best biotech stocks to buy has created a terrific buying opportunity, but it may not be one that lasts long.

The next catalyst for ICPT, you see, arrives in mid-July - just about a month away. That's when the results of another study, a 24-week phase 2b follow-up on the NASH trial, will be announced.

"We view this as the most material catalyst for Intercept in 2014," said Moussatos. She thinks OCA will hit the market by late 2015.

Do you see Intercept Pharma as a stock to buy? Why or Why not? Voice your opinion on Twitter @moneymorning or Facebook.

Editor's Note: A seven-month investigation has uncovered another tiny biotech that could completely revolutionize the $84 billion vaccine market. It has created a Universal Vaccine that could wipe out breast cancer, prostate cancer, cervical cancer - and other diseases. Based on early projections this company's stock could go as high as 2,133%. Our full investigation is now available. Please click here to read all the details...

Related Articles:

Barron's: Seize an Opportunity in Intercept Pharma Barron's: Intercept Pharmaceuticals: Another Double? Associated Press: Intercept Pharma Rises as Analyst Raises Target

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Money Lessons From My Mom

Hispanic mother and daughter hugging Getty ImagesMoms often teach their kids some of their earliest money lessons. As a child, my mom always made me feel safe, secure and loved. But she also made it a priority to prepare me for a life of financial stability. She spent a lot of time and effort over the years to set me on the right path. Sometimes she taught by example, and other times it was necessary for me to learn the hard way. These lessons have become a part of my core set of values and impact how I strive to teach my own child as well as my work for a coupon company. Here are some of the key money lessons I learned from my mom. Make your own money: My mom believed I wouldn't truly understand the value of a dollar unless I had to earn it myself. I got my first job at 15 and continued to have a job throughout college. Yes, working for minimum wage while my friends spent lazy days by the pool was hard. But as time went on, I realized I made more responsible decisions when I earned my money. I became a savvy shopper and learned to use coupons and scoured store sales and clearance racks for the best deals. Invest: Sometimes spending less doesn't equal saving more. I remember on one of our shopping trips, I proudly showed my mom a trendy blouse I had fallen in love with and it was only $10! I was sure she couldn't object. Not so fast. After closely eyeing the cheap garment, she asked me how many times I'd be able to wear it before it fell apart or was no longer fashionable. Two times? Three times? This taught me my first lesson in investment shopping: Calculate the per wear price. It didn't seem like such a bargain after all. Sometimes it's worth paying more for high-quality, timeless pieces if I can get more uses and versatility out of them in the long-run. Make it work: As you could probably guess, my mom didn't grow up with a silver spoon in her mouth. There was no extra money to spend on items deemed frivolous, which unfortunately for her meant toys. She became very resourceful with what she had around her. She made flowers by folding old newspapers and caught insects to keep as pets to distract herself from the fact that she didn't have dolls to play with. She reimaged most items into serving more than one purpose. Once when I ran out of glue for a school project, she used some leftover cooked rice from our dinner and mashed together a sticky paste to hold together my artwork. Cash in on the perks: We were fortunate that the company my father worked for paid for annual family vacations, including first class tickets and upgraded hotel accommodations. A very nice perk indeed! However, she would book us in coach and we would stay in more moderately priced lodgings or sometimes even stay home for a staycation. There were times I whined about it, but she would respond that we would have more spending money for shopping and fun activities. She won that argument every time. Let your head rule your heart: This isn't to say my mom doesn't believe in true love or romance. But she felt having financial compatibility with your mate was just as necessary to sustain a happy marriage. It was important that she and my father were on the same page with their spending habits and financial goals. Bad spending of habits of one person in a family causes bad consequences for everyone. Stay organized: She was a firm believer of having a place for everything, and everything in its place. How would I pay my bills if I couldn't find my checkbook, or know when the bills were due if they were scattered around the house? Getting charged my first $25 late fee for a bill I forgot to pay painfully proved this point. Today, there are several mobile apps and websites that make it easy to organize finances and bills online, which I've taken full advantage of because the groundwork was laid years ago. Know when to hold them, know when to fold them: I used to cringe that her relentless bargaining skills could reduce a grown man to tears, but more times than not, she got what she felt was a fair price. She taught me to set a budget beforehand and not to be afraid to ask for a discount to get to that amount. The worse answer I could hear was "no." And if I couldn't close the deal, she taught me to just walk away. At times that was easier said than done, but she felt that agreeing to pay beyond your budget was the same as tossing money in the garbage. That mental picture has stopped me from many last-minute purchases. I'll admit I've faltered from my mom's lessons over the years. Nobody's perfect, after all. But thanks to my mom, when I get financially off-kilter, I have the tools to always get myself back on track. .

Monday, December 29, 2014

U.S. Dollar Trading Higher, Euro At New 12-Month Low

March U.S. Dollar Futures is trading up 0.21 at $90.52.

Europe's Euro Currency (EUR/USD) set a new 12-month low and is trading at 1.2152.

Australia's Dollar is up against the U.S. Dollar trading at 0.8129, up 0.0017.

U.S. Dollar against Japan's Yen (USD/JPY) is higher by 0.34 at $120.68.

U.K.'s British Pound is trading lower at 1.5520, down 0.0026.

The U.S. Dollar versus the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) is trading up a bit at $1.1633.

U.S. Dollar against the Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) last traded at $0.9895, up 0.0027.

The U.S. Dollar/Mexico's Peso (USD/MXN) was last trading higher at 14.763, as lower crude oil prices pressured the Mexican Peso.

Posted-In: Futures Commodities Forex Markets

© 2014 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

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Gold Up, Still Set for Biggest Weekly Drop in 4 Months

Gold up, still set for biggest weekly fall in 4 months Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main/AP LONDON -- Gold rose Friday ahead of a series of speeches by U.S. Federal Reserve officials but was still on track for its biggest weekly fall since November following the Fed's hints of an interest rate hike in the first half of 2015. Fed officials including Richard Fisher, James Bullard and Narayana Kocherlakota are due to speak later Friday after Fed Chair Janet Yellen surprised markets mid-week by suggesting the possibility of raising interest rates early next year. Spot gold was up 0.6 percent to $1,336.40 an ounce by 1508 GMT (11:08 a.m. Eastern time), after falling to $1,320.24 on Thursday, its weakest since end-February. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5 percent to $1,336.80 an ounce. On Monday bullion briefly touched a six-month high of $1,391.76 on tensions in Ukraine and concerns about growth in China before the focus shifted towards the U.S. monetary stance. It was on course for a 3.1 percent weekly fall. "After the Fed policy meeting we saw gold fall and touch support around $1,320," MKS SA head of trading Afshin Nabavi said. "But with tensions again escalating between Russia and the West, the market has become more jumpy because it is not only the macroeconomics driving prices but also the political situation, at least in the short term." European and U.S. shares edged higher, while the dollar hovered near a three-week high against a basket of major currencies and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose above 2.7 percent. "The main longer-term factors remain expectations for higher yields, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, which are negative for the metal," ABN Amro commodity analyst Georgette Boele said. Low interest rates, which cut the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion above other assets, had been a key factor driving bullion higher in recent years. An escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the crisis in Crimea kept investors cautious, giving support to gold, usually seen as an insurance against risk, analysts said. U.S. President Barack Obama raised the stakes in the East-West confrontation on Thursday by targeting some of Russian President Vladimir Putin's closest long-time political and business allies with personal sanctions. Physical Buying The physical sector noted light buying from jewelers, but demand from main consumer China remained slow because of a weak yuan. Premiums for gold bars in Hong Kong were unchanged from last week at $1 an ounce to the spot London prices. China's yuan fell to a 13-month low on Friday and was set to post its biggest weekly fall after the central bank lowered the midpoint of its permitted trading range, which is seen as a signal of official comfort with the currency's recent losses. Weakening differentials between 99.99 percent purity gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange and cash gold discouraged imports. "Shanghai gold exchange is still at discounts to spot gold, and the market wants to know if the yuan will continue to depreciate," a physical dealer in Hong Kong said. Gold jewellery exports from India edged up 1 percent in February to $718.36 million from a year earlier, an industry body statement said on Thursday. In other precious metals, palladium rose 4 percent to $795.00 an ounce, its highest since August 2011, boosted by the launch of two exchange-traded funds in South Africa and increasing sanctions by Western countries on main producer Russia. Silver rose 0.6 percent to $20.39 an ounce and platinum gained 0.5 percent at $1,435.50 an ounce. -.

What's involved: You can buy gold bars or coins from coin dealers across the country. Many coin dealers have online businesses that will ship gold directly to your home. Pros: You have the gold in your possession, avoiding any risk of third-party misconduct that other methods of investing in gold entail. Some investors enjoy the coin-collecting aspect of gold bullion coins.

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Yay or Nay? Boeing Machinists to Vote on Labor Contract

Boeing WashingtonElaine Thompson/APMachinists union members and supporters hold their right hands over their hearts as they recite the Pledge of Allegiance ahead of a rally Thursday in Seattle. SEATTLE -- Boeing machinists will decide Friday whether to accept a contract that would concede some pension and health care benefits to secure assembly of the company's new 777X airplane in Washington state. The offer has fractured the union and drawn unusual pleas from politicians who say the deal is necessary to support the Puget Sound region's economic future. Boeing (BA) has been exploring the prospect of building the 777X elsewhere, a move that could trigger a steady exodus of aerospace jobs from a region where Boeing was founded. Local union officials, meanwhile, are urging their 30,000 members to oppose the deal, arguing that the proposal surrenders too much at a time of company profitability. They have opposed taking a vote at all but were overruled by national leaders in the machinists union. Voting will to take place from 5 a.m. to 6 p.m. Friday. Results are expected to be announced later in the night. Washington state has always been the most natural place for Chicago-based Boeing to build the 777X, since most of the company's production is still done in the Puget Sound area. Boeing has offered to keep the 777X in the region but sought two big deals: An extension of tax breaks all the way to 2040 and a new contract with the Machinists union that would transition workers away from traditional pensions. In November, state lawmakers swiftly approved the tax benefits -- valued at some $9 billion -- but the Machinists rejected a proposed contract shortly afterward. After the initial contract rejection, Boeing immediately began soliciting bids from other states. The company said it received submissions for 54 locations in 22 states. Boeing has improved its offer since the last vote by machinists. An initial plan to slow the rate that workers move up the pay scale was tossed while the company also offered an additional $5,000 signing bonus and improved dental coverage. Opponents of the contract oppose the idea of freezing the pension and moving workers to a defined-contribution savings plan. They also decry increased health care expenses and slower wage growth. However, some machinists would likely see their base salaries rise above $100,000 if the deal passes. Boeing Co. began offering the 777X in May, and company officials have said they need to move swiftly to decide where the plane will be built. Production of Boeing's 777X would likely bring thousands of well-paying jobs to whatever region wins the work. The plane is a new iteration of its strong-selling 777, and the company recently received orders for 225 new 777X planes from three airlines at the Dubai Airshow. Boeing has said the 777X is expected to carry as many as 400 passengers and be more fuel efficient than the current 777.

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Affleck or Bale? What Does It Take to Be Batman

Ben Affleck batman christian bale movies time warnerTouchstone/Getty ImagesBen Affleck in a scene from the 1998 film "Armageddon." Only a handful of actors have been given the privilege of playing Batman. Last week, Ben Affleck joined a list that includes the likes of Adam West, Christian Bale and Kevin Conroy, who has voiced the character in animated features since 1992. He'll join Henry Cavill, who plays Superman, in an epic that pits the two iconic superheroes against each other. Time Warner (TWX) plans to release the film in July 2015. Many fans were outraged by the choice. "Christian Bale IS 'THE' BATMAN and I refuse to watch this movie even after it comes out on video," wrote one commenter to an article I published at Fool.com last week. Another organized a petition asking Warner to reconsider its choice. More than 85,000 have signed as of this writing. Tale of the Tape Are fans overreacting, or is Warner taking a huge chance by asking Affleck to play one of its most valuable superhero brands? I'd argue the former after looking at the data. Pound for pound, Affleck's credentials are about as good as Bale's:

Metric Ben Affleck Christian Bale
Films made 33 31
Lifetime gross (U.S.) $1.67 billion $1.91 billion
Average per film $50.7 million $61.6 million
Top-grossing film "Armageddon" ($537.7 million worldwide) "The Dark Knight Rises" ($1.08 billion worldwide)
Lowest-grossing film "Glory Daze" ($15,134 worldwide) "All the Little Animals" ($26,558 worldwide)
Academy Awards 2 1
Age / Height / Weight 41 / 6'2" / 200 lbs. 39 / 6' / 180 lbs.
Comic book films "Daredevil" "Batman Begins" "The Dark Knight" "The Dark Knight Rises"
Best-delivered line in a comic book film "Hey, that light? At the end of the tunnel? Guess what? That's not heaven ... That's the C train!"-- from "Daredevil" "You'll hunt me. You'll condemn me. Set the dogs on me. Because that's what needs to happen. Because sometimes the truth isn't good enough. Sometimes people deserve more. Sometimes people deserve to have their faith rewarded." -- from "The Dark Knight"
Meanwhile, Back at the Batcave ... While it's tough to blame fans who remember Affleck in "Daredevil" -- moviegoers disliked the film even more than critics did -- investors have bigger concerns when it comes to 2015's Batman-Superman throw down. Funding, for one. Warner is no longer working with Legendary Pictures, which had been its production partner for Nolan's "Batman" series as well as "Man of Steel." Now, the upstart studio behind "Pacific Rim" is working with Comcast (CMCSA, CMCSK) and Universal Pictures. In financing 100 percent of the budget for new DC Comics films, Warner stands to keep more of the profits from hits. But a bomb would also create bigger losses. It's a bold strategy we've seen work well for Marvel Entertainment and Walt Disney (DIS), which also made waves when director Joe Johnston cast Chris Evans -- an actor known for his comedic timing -- to play a stoic super-soldier in "Captain America: The First Avenger." Audiences and critics responded well to the film, which earned more than $368 million at the worldwide box office. Affleck could defy expectations similarly, but only if he's given the right script. Expect Warner and director Zack Snyder to do everything possible to give him precisely that.

Friday, December 26, 2014

10 golden money rules that can make you a millionaire

In my experience, lack of financial literacy has been the main reason why people have not made the best use of their money. Their potential to become millionaires has, therefore, unfortunately remained unrealised. Worse, they have repeatedly fallen prey to fraudulent schemes. If you want financial success, this has to change. You have to become more vigilant about your financial matters.

For your convenience I have listed below 10 Golden Money Rules that are the catalyst to your millionaire-aspirations.

1. Invest in financial lessons before investing in financial assets

You don't drive without learning driving and getting a license. Do you? Similarly, you need to first learn how to acquire good assets and manage them appropriately.

2. Have a detailed Financial Roadmap

Without one you could easily get lost in the financial maze and may not reach your goals. Get yourself a financial GPS.

3. You are unique. Hence, do what suits you

Blindly copying others is not a good idea. Your assets, liabilities, needs, desires, time-frame, risk-appetite are different from your friends, neighbours, colleagues, relatives. So naturally, your investment pattern too has to be different from them.

4. Keep things simple

A simple term plan, a simple mutual fund, a simple medical insurance plan, etc. will work well in most cases. Don�t be under the false impression that complicated products give better returns.

5. Start early, invest regularly and stay invested

Time makes money. Even Einstein was impressed by the power of compounding. Assets are merely the tools, which Time employs to make money for you.

6. Always pay your credit card bills before the due date

This will not only save you lots of avoidable interest charges, but also prevent splurging. It will ensure that you buy only what you really need.

7. Avoid Leveraging

A millionaire with debt is a fake millionaire. I am sure you wouldn't want to be one.

8. Avoid exotic products and derivatives

They have been rightly termed as Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction. Look what happened even to the mighty USA. 

9. Seek guidance from professional financial advisors

Right directions will save you a lot in terms of time, efforts and money.

10. Beware of scams and scheming agents

If anything sounds too good to be true, it usually isn't true. Don't trust anyone. Triple-check every deal offered to you. Internet is a great tool to get right information.

This list should, however, be your starting point, not end-point. Educate yourself. Books, internet, seminars . . . you have so many avenues to choose from. After all it is your hard-earned money. So please do take good care of it.

In fact, I would go to the extent of saying that if you just follow one rule - KEEP THINGS SIMPLE - you will not go wrong with your financial decisions. (The financial lessons will be easy, the roadmap would be simple, you will not need any experts, you will avoid scams and exotic products, you will keep away from debt, you will not have any problems in paying your bills on time, etc.)

Sanjay Matai is a personal finance advisor ( www.wealtharchitects.in ) and author. �Millionaires don�t eat cakes�they make them� is his latest publication.

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Are We Already in the Golden Era of Electric Vehicles?

Back in the heyday of the automobile, there were dozens and dozens of car manufacturers. In addition to Ford (NYSE: F  ) , General Motors (NYSE: GM  ) , and Chrysler, we had top nameplates like Studebaker, Hudson, Nash, and more, with all but the Big Three eventually succumbing to competitive issues and fading from the marketplace.

Today, in the electric vehicle market, we're seeing a similar proliferation of cars, though they're generally being built only by the biggest carmakers, domestic or foreign. And though there are a few standout, independent manufacturers like Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA  ) , it seems clear that, even among the major carmakers, we're going to see a weaning of the field.

Fisker, for example, is already veering into the ditch of bankruptcy, and while we likely won't see any of the majors following suit, it seems evident that not everyone is suited for the EV marketplace.

Sales may be much improved over last year, but they've failed to spark any real buying, and seem like they'll be nothing but a small, niche product. Even with manufacturers offering ridiculously low lease plans, incentive programs, and discounts, barely 25,000 EVs have been sold in 2013 through the end of April, and most of those have been hybrids. We'll start seeing the May numbers soon, but don't expect any great leap forward in all-electric sales.

There's just too much competition for the low level of demand. The Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf are the only cars able to sell more than 1,000 vehicles in any given month. Honda is literally selling only a few dozen, and Ford and Toyota are only selling hundreds. Others, like Mitsubishi, haven't established any reliable pattern, yet there are still more models coming on the market.

The best-selling models aren't even EVs, but hybrids like the Volt and Prius. GM will be bring the Spark onto the market in June, and Chrysler's Fiat 500e will follow in July, as carmakers feel they have to have an EV as part of their production run. It's just unrealistic considering the costs involved and the lack of demand.

My prediction is that we're going to eventually see just a handful of EVs left by the end of the decade, if not sooner, likely led byTesla, which seems to be the only one to have found its groove. 

Between a plethora of models to choose from, low demand, limited range, and new, emerging technologies to compete against it -- hydrogen-powered cars, anyone? natural gas? -- the grand experiment in electricity will see most of these models go the way of the Maxwell and Pierce-Arrow. It just won't be as glorious of a bygone era as the one that spawned the horseless carriage. 

Tesla's plan to disrupt the global auto business has yielded spectacular results. But giant competitors are already moving to disrupt Tesla. Will the company be able to fend them off? The Motley Fool answers this question and more in our most in-depth Tesla research available. Get instant access by clicking here now.

Why US Ecology Is Poised to Keep Poppin'

Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, hazardous waste disposal specialist US Ecology (NASDAQ: ECOL  ) has earned a coveted five-star ranking.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at US Ecology and see what CAPS investors are saying about the stock right now.

US Ecology facts

Headquarters (founded)

Boise, Idaho (1952)

Market Cap

$501.8 million

Industry

Environmental and facilities services

Trailing-12-Month Revenue

$179.0 million

Management

President/COO Jeffrey Feeler

CFO Eric Gerratt

Return on Equity (average, past 3 years)

19.6%

Cash/Debt

$4.5 million / $41.0 million

Dividend Yield

2.7%

Competitors

Clean Harbors

Valhi

Waste Management

Sources: S&P Capital IQ and Motley Fool CAPS.

On CAPS, 97% of the 519 members who have rated US Ecology believe the stock will outperform the S&P 500 going forward.

Just last week, one of those Fools, TMFrank, succinctly summed up the US Ecology bull case for our community: "Strong regional competitive advantage, huge amounts of operating leverage and a rebounding construction/manufacturing sector should help this company grow."

If you want market-thumping returns, you need to put together the best portfolio you can. Of course, despite a strong five-star rating, US Ecology may not be your top choice.

We've found another stock we are incredibly excited about -- excited enough to dub it "The Motley Fool's Top Stock for 2013." We have compiled a special free report for investors to uncover this stock today. The report is 100% free, but it won't be here forever, so click here to access it now.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

1 in 3 Americans Are Shopping Online at Work

portrait of consultant on the... Goodluz/Shutterstock Americans give multiple reasons for shopping online from work, such as keeping purchases secret, not having time outside of work to shop and a faster Internet connection. But it comes with risks, too. That's the conclusion of a recent survey by legal information website FindLaw.com, where 35 percent of Americans said the shopped online at work. Stephanie Rahlfs of FindLaw in a statement warned that shopping online while at work could give employers grounds for discipline or termination. Most workplaces have policies restricting employees' use of the company Internet for personal uses. In addition, even if such policies are not explicitly stated, it's a safe bet that most employers would frown on employees cyber-shopping on company time. Just how much time is online shopping sucking out of the work day? According to Ebates, 16 percent of Americans said they spend an hour or two each week shopping online at work, while 14 percent spend three to four hours a week, and 4 percent said they spend a decent chunk of their work time, five to seven hours per week, online shopping from their office. Mashable offers this advice: "How to Shop Discreetly at Work." Some Leniency According to Cleveland.com, some employers are lenient when it comes to their employees' online shopping, as long as they're not spending an exorbitant amount of time. "One of the reasons most employers are lenient regarding shopping at work is that senior management is more likely than their rank-and-file employees to do the shopping," Ryan Hunt, senior career adviser at CareerBuilder in Chicago, said in an email to Cleveland.com. Robert Half Technology, an international information technology staffing company, recently asked employers about their company policy regarding online shopping. Here's what they said: 27 percent of employers allow their employees unrestricted online shopping access. 42 percent allow some access but monitor the online shopping for excessive use. 30 percent of employers block access to online shopping sites. "It is part of a growing trend allowing more flexibility, to increase not only employee satisfaction, but ultimately employee productivity while at work," Eric Younkin, Cleveland branch manager for Robert Half Technology, told Cleveland.com.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Zynga Inc (ZNGA) Earnings Report: Is Time Running Out? GLUU & KING

The Q3 2014 earnings report for small cap social media gaming stock Zynga Inc (NASDAQ: ZNGA), a potential peer of mobile gaming stock Glu Mobile Inc (NASDAQ: GLUU) and interactive entertainment stock King Digital Entertainment PLC (NYSE: KING), is scheduled for after the market closes on Thursday (November 6th). Aside from the Zynga Inc earnings report, it should be said that Glu Mobile Inc reported Q3 2014 earnings on October 29th (shares fell on profit expectations and missed revenue forecasts) while King Digital Entertainment PLC will also report Q3 2014 earnings after the market closes on Thursday. However, Zynga Inc has long struggled and has worked hard to come out from under the shadow of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) but Wall Street and investor patience may be running out.

What Should You Watch Out for With the Zynga Inc Earnings Report?

First, here is a quick recap of Zynga Inc's recent earnings history along with EPS estimate trends from the Yahoo! Finance analyst estimates page:

Earnings HistorySep 13Dec 13Mar 14Jun 14
EPS Est -0.04 -0.04 -0.01 0.00
EPS Actual -0.02 -0.03 -0.01 0.00
Difference 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00
Surprise % 50.00% 25.00% 0.00% N/A
 
EPS TrendsCurrent Qtr.
Sep 14Next Qtr.
Dec 14Current Year
Dec 14Next Year
Dec 15
Current Estimate -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04
7 Days Ago -0.01 0.00 -0.01 0.04
30 Days Ago -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.04
60 Days Ago -0.01 0.01 -0.01 0.04
90 Days Ago 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.06

 

Back in early August, Zynga Inc reported a 34% year over year revenue decrease (plus a decrease of 9% from Q1 2014) to $153 million as online game revenue fell 36% (plus a decrease of 1% from Q1 2014) to $131 million and advertising and other revenue fell 19% (plus a decrease of 38% from Q1 2014) to $22 million. FarmVille 2 and Zynga Poker accounted for 32% and 24% of online game revenue, respectively, for the second quarter of 2014 verses to 30% and 24%, respectively, for the first quarter of 2014 but as of June 30, 2014, cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were approximately $1.15 billion verses $1.14 billion as of March 31, 2014. The net loss was $63 million for the second quarter of 2014 verses a net loss of $16 million for the second quarter of 2013 and compared to net loss of $61 million for the first quarter of 2014. The CEO commented:

"We continue to make significant investments in the highest potential areas of our future pipeline. By Q4 of this year, approximately half of our game-related research and development will be allocated to new and recently launched games -- this represents about a 45% increase year over year. We currently have capabilities and brands in content genres with Farm, Words, Casino, Racing and People and we are further diversifying our product portfolio in order to reach more consumers and widen our demographic across more entertainment genres."

And:

"Today we are announcing that we are expanding our game development efforts in two new additional categories: Sports and Runner. Our Sports effort introduces a new franchise brand for us -- Zynga Sports 365 -- and with it, new mobile games in football with the NFL and NFL Players Inc. and in golf with one of the most iconic athletes in the world, Tiger Woods. Our Runner expansion features a new partnership with Warner Bros. Interactive Entertainment to bring to life their beloved Looney Tunes brand for mobile consumers. We are pleased to launch the geo-lock for our new football game -- NFL Showdown -- today and look forward to making it, along with our Tiger Woods golf game and Looney Tunes runner game available globally to fans around the world."

However, Zynga Inc has delayed the launch of new versions of several titles, including "Zynga Poker" and "Words with Friends" as well as mobile games from Natural Motion, a studio it bought in January for $527 million.

Hence, analysts and investors alike were not enthused with the former slashing price targets with Macquarie's Benjamin Schachter cutting his target 25% to $3, saying: "So far, Zynga has failed to deliver." And given recently delayed products, he commented "investors will have to wait at least another quarter to find out if Zynga can grow profitably."

What do the Zynga Inc Charts Say?

The latest technical chart for small cap Zynga Inc shows shares have steadily trended downward since a spring time jump:

A long term performance chart shows that investors and traders alike who have a stomach for risk have come out as big winners with Glu Mobile Inc and losers if they were in Zynga Inc and King Digital Entertainment PLC:

A technical chart for Glu Mobile Inc shows volatility above a $3.80 level floor while King Digital Entertainment PLC did have a summer time surge before sinking back into a downtrend:

What Should Be Your Next Move?

As investor and Wall Street patience grows thin, small cap Zynga Inc will need to demonstrate some sort of progress in the coming earnings report. Otherwise, the CEO's head could be the first thing on the chopping block after earnings.

Monday, December 22, 2014

Weekly CEO Sells Highlight

According to GuruFocus Insider Data, these are the largest CEO sales during the past week: Lions Gate Entertainment Corp, Fidelity National Financial Inc, Infinera Corp, and HD Supply Holdings Inc. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (LGF): CEO Jon Feltheimer sold 250,000 SharesCEO of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp (LGF) Jon Feltheimer sold 250,000 shares on 09/19/2014 at an average price of $33.59. Lions Gate Entertainment Corporation is a Corporation organized under the laws of the Province of British Columbia, resulting from the merger of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp has a market cap of $4.28 billion; its shares were traded at around $31.17 with a P/E ratio of 25.80 and P/S ratio of 1.88. The dividend yield of Lions Gate Entertainment Corp stocks is 0.71%. Lions Gate Entertainment Corp had an annual average earnings growth of 17.50% over the past 5 years.Lions Gate Entertainment Corp announced their 2014 annual report with revenues of $2.63 billion and net income of $152.04 million.CEO Jon Feltheimer sold 250,000 shares of LGF stock on 09/19/2014 at the average price of 33.59. General Counsel and CSO Wayne Levin and Co-COO Steve Beeks sold 100,000 shares of LGF stock in September.Fidelity National Financial Inc (FNF): CEO Raymond R Quirk sold 150,000 SharesCEO of Fidelity National Financial Inc (FNF) Raymond R Quirk sold 150,000 shares on 09/17/2014 at an average price of $28.13. Fidelity National Financial, Inc. was incorporated in the State of Delaware. Fidelity National Financial Inc has a market cap of $7.84 billion; its shares were traded at around $28.05 with a P/E ratio of 26.40 and P/S ratio of 0.84. The dividend yield of Fidelity National Financial Inc stocks is 2.55%. Fidelity National Financial Inc had an annual average earnings growth of 17.70% over the past 5 years.Fidelity National Financial Inc. reported its 2014 second quarter results. The Company announced revenues of $1.7 billion and net income of $111 million.CEO Raymond R Quirk sold 150,000 shares of FN! F stock on 09/17/2014 at the average price of 28.13.Infinera Corp (INFN): CEO Thomas J Fallon sold 150,000 SharesCEO of Infinera Corp (INFN) Thomas J Fallon sold 150,000 shares on 09/18/2014 at an average price of $11.43. Infinera Corporation or Infinera was founded in December 2000, originally operated under the name 'Zepton Networks'. Infinera Corp has a market cap of $1.31 billion; its shares were traded at around $10.69 with and P/S ratio of 2.24.Infinera Corp announced its 2014 second quarter results with revenues of $165.4 million and net income of $4.8 million.CEO Thomas J Fallon sold 270,000 shares of INFN stock in April, August, and September. CFO Brad Feller bought 25,000 shares of INFN stock on 05/16/2014 at the average price of 8.25. President David F Welch, Director Hooshmand Kambiz, Director Paul J Milbury, and Director Carl Redfield sold 357,000 shares of INFN stock in August and September.HD Supply Holdings Inc (HDS): President and CEO Joseph J Deangelo sold 117,050 SharesPresident and CEO of HD Supply Holdings Inc (HDS) Joseph J Deangelo sold 117,050 shares on 09/18/2014 at an average price of $29. HD Supply Holdings Inc provides an array of products and value-add services to the infrastructure and power, MRO, and specialty construction sectors in the U. Hd Supply Holdings Inc has a market cap of $5.51 billion; its shares were traded at around $28.02 with a P/E ratio of 291.90 and P/S ratio of 0.63.HD Supply Holdings Inc. reported revenues of $2.4 million and net income of $48 million for its 2014 fiscal second quarter results.President and CEO Joseph J Deangelo sold 117,050 shares of HDS stock on 09/18/2014 at the average price of 29. President, HD Supply White Cap John Stegeman, Senior VP/GC & Corp Sec Ricardo J Nunez, and Pres-HD Supply Power Solutions Steven Margolius sold 78,705 shares of HDS stock in September.For the complete list of stocks that bought by their CEOs, go to: Insider Buys.

Currently 0.00/51234

Sunday, December 21, 2014

Meridian Growth Fund Annual Annual Review

On September 5, 2013, we began managing the Meridian Growth Fund. It is our distinct honor to take the helm of this venerable fund, which was founded by Richard Aster nearly 30 years ago. Through rigorous fundamental research, disciplined portfolio construction, and a focus on managing risk before reward, we hope to expand upon Meridian Growth Fund's legacy. We will use the same process and philosophy that served us well managing another mutual fund for 7 years. Namely, our investment philosophy is centered on four key tenets:

1. Employ fundamental research to identify high-quality growth businesses with predictable and recurring revenues, high returns on invested capital, and attractive risk-reward profiles.

2. Build a durable portfolio that first and foremost protects capital in tough, turbulent markets and secondarily keeps up with the broader market in bull market environments.

3. Always think about risk before reward. Almost 30 years of combined experience in small- and mid-cap markets have taught us the importance of sidestepping the landmines and pitfalls that trip up many other investors.

4. Protect and grow your hard-earned savings. To this end, we believe strongly that it's important that we eat our own cooking; we plan to allocate a significant percentage of our own net worth to Meridian Growth Fund.

In our opinion, this disciplined process combined with decades of experience, extensive resources, and a long-term investment horizon are the key ingredients required for consistent outperformance versus our peers and our benchmark. We look forward to many rewarding years stewarding your capital.

Performance overview

The Meridian Growth Fund – Legacy Shares returned 17.31% during the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2014, underperforming its primary benchmark, the Russell 2500 Growth Index, which rose 26.26%. There were several factors that impacted performance during the period.

The first was the portfolio manager transition that occurred on September 6, 2013. Prior to our portfolio management responsibilities, the portfolio underperformed the index by 4.12%. As part of the transition, we repositioned some of the portfolio's holdings to be consistent with our philosophy and process.

The relative underperformance during the second half of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2014 was driven by the low-quality characteristics, such as low returns on capital, low profit margins and often negative earnings per share, of the stocks that performed best early in 2014. This underperformance was partially offset by the strong relative performance (seen in the low downside capture rates) during the market selloff from March to April 2014.

The Meridian Growth Fund seeks to invest in high-quality (defined by overall profitability) and attractively valued stocks, which means the fund may underperform in periods such as the first quarter of this year.

The second period of meaningful relative performance differential was the selloff from the index's peak in the first week of March through the low in early April. During that time the fund captured just 70% of the market's decline, with the Russell 2500 Growth falling 9.17% and the fund falling 6.46%. This experience is consistent with our goal of capturing less downside than the market in turbulent, volatile environments. By putting risk and downside protection at the forefront of our process, we believe we will be better positioned to deliver strong long-term absolute and relative returns.

The top contributors to performance during the period were Trimble Navigation, Sensata Technologies, and Cadence Design Systems.

• Trimble Navigation (TRMB) provides location-based solutions to its customers that enhance their productivity and profitability. The recovery in construction end markets and continued strong demand from the farm economy resulted in strong overall financial results for the company and a strong stock price. We trimmed the position as it began to exceed the upper end of the market cap range that we invest in.

• Sensata Technologies (ST) develops, manufactures and sells sensors and controls. We are attracted to the company's large growth opportunity, which is driven by increased sensor penetration in industries such as automobiles and general industrial opportunities. We find Sensata's business model to be attractive given the stability of its revenues, strong operating leverage and excellent management team. During the period, the company benefited from a rebound in European automobile sales and deployed capital in several small accretive acquisitions. We have been trimming the position modestly as the stock approaches our price target.

• Cadence Desi

Saturday, December 20, 2014

5 Ways That Pinterest Can Save You Money, Headaches

Pinterests New Look Pinterest/AP

Pinterest, like all social media platforms, can be a huge time sink. And if you're not careful, it can cost you money, too. After all, it only takes a few failed Pinterest projects to funnel money into things you'll never use. But there is a flip side: Pinterest really can be a useful tool to improve your budget. Here are just five ideas: 1. Pin Budgeting Articles One of the easiest ways to use Pinterest for money management is to create a board for money-saving or money-making ideas. Troll your favorite personal finance websites for ideas on saving money on groceries, buying a home or saving for retirement. Pin them all to a single board so you can easily reference them later. And if you're a true neat freak (or just really like to read about personal finance), you could always break it down into separate boards. 2. Make a Shopping List Pinterest is an excellent resource for planning. You might use it to gather ideas for Christmas gifts or your child's birthday party. And you don't just have to pin do-it-yourself gift and party-planning ideas, either. You can use Pinterest to link to ready-made products from your favorite stores. The Rich Pins feature lets you pin products with a real-time price attached. So you can check back on your boards once in a while to see if the prices have dropped. Better yet, let Pinterest send you an email when a price changes on a product you've pinned. That way, you know you're getting the best deal. 3. Create a Wait List or a Wish List If you tend to overspend on last-minute splurges, consider using Pinterest as a wait list. Whenever you feel the urge to buy something -– be it a new pair of jeans, a new TV or even a new car -– pin an image of that item (or something close to it) to a Pinterest board. Then, give yourself 30 days. If you still want the item after 30 days, buy it. If not, you've saved yourself from an impulse buy. An alternative to this is to use Pinterest for a wish list. Say you see a new book or pair of earrings you'd really like to have, but you don't have the money. Stick them on a Pinterest board, and when your mom asks what you'd like for Christmas, you'll have something better to say than, "Uh, I don't know." 4. Gather DIY Ideas Pinterest is known for its "Pinteresty" DIY ideas. In fact, it launched as a way to gather great DIY ideas. Whether you're looking for frugal recipes, gardening tips or ideas for upcycling the clothes in your closet, you'll find it on Pinterest. A word of caution: Just because an experienced chef, seamstress or woodworker makes a project look easy, it doesn't mean the project actually is easy. So be careful about the projects you tackle. Start with projects that are well within your reach and then move on to more complicated ones. That way, you can avoid the "Pinterest fails" now littering the Web. 5. Organize Meal Planning Food is one of the biggest budget items for many families. It's also one of the easiest ways for most families to cut back on spending. If you find your family constantly throwing out leftovers or grabbing fast food because you forgot to plan something for dinner, Pinterest can help. This social media platform is chock-full of ideas for meals –- from simple to gourmet. You can use it to create your own family cookbook. You can split recipes you find online into several boards by theme. Then pick out your recipes each week to plan ahead, so you don't have to grab a fast-food burger on the way home.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

New GM Recall Raises Questions About Auto-Parts Safety

Carlos Osorio/APGM's latest recall includes some newer models, including the 2013-14 Cadillac CTS. DETROIT -- The ignition switch recalls now engulfing General Motors (GM) and Chrysler are raising new questions about the safety of the parts across the American auto industry. GM's safety crisis deepened dramatically Monday when the automaker added 8.2 million vehicles in North America to its ballooning list of cars recalled over faulty ignition switches. GM has now issued five recalls for 17.1 million cars with defective switches, spanning every model year since 1997. On the same day, Chrysler recalled almost 700,000 vehicles in North America because its ignition switches -- like GM's -- can slip from the "run" to the "accessory" position while driving. The Chrysler action expands an earlier recall of 2010 Chrysler Town and Country and Dodge Grand Caravan minivans and Dodge Journey crossovers. Models from 2007 to 2009 are now included. GM's debacle caused other manufacturers to investigate their own switches and other potential defects. A recent spate of air bag recalls is probably tied to those internal investigations, said Karl Brauer, a senior industry analyst with Kelley Blue Book. The government is also reviewing the switches. Brauer said he doesn't think the ignition switch recalls will expand across the industry. Manufacturers all have their own switch designs and use different suppliers. But the possibility is there, and buyers should be aware of the potential for cars to slip into the wrong mode. If a car comes out of the "run" position, the power steering and brakes can stop working, which can cause drivers to lose control. The air bags also won't function. GM has urged drivers to remove excess items from their key chains that could weigh down the keys. "I think the ignition switch thing is fairly specific to GM, but it will be interesting to see. Were other companies letting their standards fall?" Brauer said. GM's latest recalls involve mainly older midsize cars and bring its total recalls in North America to 29 million this year, surpassing the 22 million recalled by all automakers last year. The new GM recalls cover seven vehicles, including the Chevrolet Malibu from 1997 to 2005, the Pontiac Grand Prix from 2004 to 2008, and the 2003-2014 Cadillac CTS. The company is aware of three deaths, eight injuries and seven crashes involving the vehicles, although it says there's no clear evidence that faulty switches caused the accidents. Air bags didn't deploy in the three fatal accidents, which is a sign that the ignition was out of position. But air bags may not deploy for other reasons as well. A GM spokesman couldn't say Monday if more recalls are imminent. But this may be the end of the recalls associated with a 60-day review of all of the company's ignition switches. At the company's annual meeting earlier in June, CEO Mary Barra said she hoped most recalls related to that review would be completed by the end of the month. Huge Number of Recalls Brauer said the number of recalls -- while huge -- may be a good thing for the company in the long run. "I think there's a new standard for what GM considers a potential safety defect, and Mary Barra has no tolerance or patience for potential safety defects that are unresolved," he said. In a statement Monday, Barra said the company "will act appropriately and without hesitation" if any new issues come to light. Lance Cooper, a Marietta, Georgia, attorney who is suing GM, said he expects even more recalls. A company funded investigation of the ignition switch problems by former U.S. Attorney Anton Valukas found that GM had a dysfunctional corporate culture in which people failed to take responsibility to fix the problems, Cooper said. "Cars got made that were defective. The buck kept getting passed, and this is what happened as a result," Cooper said. The announcement of more recalls extends a crisis for GM that began in February with small-car ignition switch problems. GM recalled 2.6 million older small cars worldwide because of the switches. Drawing Government Scrutiny The problem has drawn the attention of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the government's road safety agency. On June 18, the agency opened two investigations into ignition switches in Chrysler minivans and SUVs, and acknowledged that it's looking at the whole industry. The agency is looking into how long air bags remain active after the switches are moved out of the run position. In many cases, the answer is less than a second. GM's recalls on Monday bring this year's total so far to more than 40 million for the U.S. industry, far surpassing the old full-year record of 30.8 million from 2004. The latest recalls came the same day the company's compensation consultant, Kenneth Feinberg, announced plans to pay victims of crashes caused by the defective small-car switches. Attorneys and lawmakers say about 100 people have died and hundreds were injured in crashes, although Feinberg said he didn't have a total. Feinberg said the company has placed no limit on how much he can spend in total to compensate victims. But victims of the new set of recalls announced Monday can't file claims to the fund, which deals only with the small cars. In the original recall, the ignition switches didn't meet GM's specifications but were used anyway, and they slipped too easily out of the "run" position. The vehicles recalled Monday have switches that do conform to GM's specifications. In these cases, the keys can move the ignition out of position because of jarring, bumps from the driver's knee or the weight of a heavy key chain, GM says. The cars recalled Monday will get replacement keys. The small cars recalled in February are getting new ignitions. The Detroit company said it plans to take a $1.2 billion charge in the second quarter for recall-related expenses. Added to a $1.3 billion charge in the first quarter, that brings total recall expenses for the year to $2.5 billion. GM also announced four other recalls Monday covering more than 200,000 additional vehicles. Most are to fix an electrical short in the driver's door that could disable the power locks and windows and even cause overheating.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

A Bad Time for Movado

Wall Street got wound up about Movado (MOV) after the maker of luxury watches warned that third-quarter results would sharply miss expectations because of slow growth in the industry and brand weakness overseas.

For the third quarter, Movado expects sales of $188.6 million, below the $189.7 million in the year-earlier period and the $218 million expected by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters. Movado also expects per-share earnings of 86 cents to 87 cents, below the Thomson Reuters estimate of $1.13.

As for full-year forecasts, Movado now expects to earn between $1.80 and $1.85 a share on revenue of $585 million to $590 million, vs its previous outlook of $2.44 a share on revenue of $640 million.

Movado is slated to post third-quarter results on Nov. 25.

Heading into the closing bell, the stock dropped 28.7% to $27.43 after earlier falling as much as 35% to $25.12, its lowest point in more than two years. At its lowest Friday, the stock was down 47% from its 12-month high.

As the WSJ reports:

Watchmakers have been pressured by a lackluster economy in Europe and slowing sales in Asia, which had been a source of strength. In particular, sales in Hong Kong—the world's biggest watch market—have weakened because of pro-democracy protests that shut much of the city.

Adding to the industry's headaches is the looming smartwatch from Apple Inc. which is expected to compete for consumer attention.

"The overall watch category is experiencing slower growth and retailers are focusing on driving improved productivity. Moreover, certain of our brands did not perform as well as planned, including Movado in international markets," Chief Executive Efraim Grinberg said.

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Coal Stocks Get a Post-Election Bounce

If any sector needed a Republican victory to reverse its fortunes it was the coal miners, where stocks like Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), Walter Energy (WLT), Arch Coal (ACI) and Peabody Energy (BTU) have lost more than 45% so far this year.

Well, they got what they wanted. With a Republican victory, there’s a good chance that the Congress will “slow down EPA rules on coal,” Strategas Research Partners’ Daniel Clifton said in an interview last month, rules that have limited its use by utilities. A Republican Congress will also have the votes to push through approval for the Keystone XL pipeline. if that happens, it should free up some rail transport for coal, Clifton said, a problem that Peabody Energy recently said had limited its coal sales.

The coal stocks are already acting as if an improvement in their fortunes is fait accompli. Shares of Alpha Natural Resources have jumped 8.4% to $2.26 at 11:13 a.m. today, while Walter Energy has gained 6% to $2.67 and Peabody Energy is up 3.7% to $10.67. Arch Coal has ticked up 0.2% to $2.26.

Sunday, November 2, 2014

GM recalling 56,000 Saturns

2007 saturn aura

In some Saturn Auras, a gear shift cable can break causing the gear selector not to work.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) General Motors said Tuesday that is recalling 56,000 Saturn Aura sedans in the United States.

The automaker said the cars could roll away when drivers think the vehicle is in Park because of a flaw that sometimes incorrectly displays the gear in the gear selector.

The problem can occur in cars equipped with a four-speed automatic transmission. A gear shift cable can break even while the vehicle is being driven. If that happens, the driver would be able to move the gear selector, but unbeknownst to him, the car would not have shifted into another gear, such as Reverse of Park.

If, after stopping the car, the driver is unable to shift into Park, the vehicle could roll away if the parking brake has not been applied.

Alfa Romeo is back with new 4C   Alfa Romeo is back with new 4C

GM is currently aware of 28 crashes and four injuries resulting from this problem but no deaths.

Gallery - Cool cars from the Beijing Auto Show

The vehicles being recalled are all from model years 2007 and 2008. Owners will be asked to take their vehicles to a dealership to have the gear shift cable assembly replaced.

Since its recall of 2.6 million compact and sports cars over a problem with ignition switches, a problem the automaker had known about for 10 years, GM has been facing increased scrutiny over its response to safety issues. The automaker has pledged to respond more quickly in the future when recalls are needed. GM has announced a number of recalls since then including a recent one of 52,000 SUVs for a fuel gauge issue. Still, GM was accused of being slow to respond to a power steering issue in Saturn Ions. To top of page

Friday, October 31, 2014

Trade, Defense Spending Boost Third-Quarter Growth

gross domestic product or GDP text on black block Alamy WASHINGTON -- A smaller trade deficit and a surge in defense spending buoyed U.S. economic growth in the third quarter, but other details of Thursday's report hinted at some loss of momentum in activity. Gross domestic product grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said Thursday, beating economists' expectations for a 3 percent pace. While the pace of growth in business investment, housing and consumer spending slowed from the second quarter, all those categories contributed to growth. "The report was broadly constructive, with the gains broadly based and pointing to positive underlying momentum in the U.S. economy," said Millan Mulraine, deputy chief economist at TD Securities in New York. "However, with some indications of weakness emerging in housing and consumption spending, we expect the pace of growth to slip further in the fourth quarter." Despite decelerating from the second quarter's brisk 4.6 percent pace, it was the fourth quarter out of five that the economy has expanded at or above a 3.5 percent clip. A separate report from the Labor Department showed first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week, but remained at levels consistent with firming labor market conditions. The data came one day after the Federal Reserve ended its asset purchasing program. Fed officials said there was sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy. The dollar extended gains against the euro and the yen, while prices for U.S. Treasury debt trimmed gains. The narrower trade deficit reflected a plunge in imports, which fell at their fastest pace since the fourth quarter of 2012. That was largely attributed to a drop in oil imports. Trade added 1.32 percentage points to growth. Although there are concerns a strengthening dollar and slowing euro zone and Chinese economies will crimp U.S. export growth, economists believe the impact will be marginal. Government spending was also a boost, with defense spending rising at a 16 percent rate, its fastest pace since the second quarter of 2009. One of the few areas that was a drag on growth was inventories, which subtracted 0.57 percentage point from GDP after adding 1.42 percentage points in the second quarter. Business Spending Slows Growth in business investment slowed in the third quarter, with spending on equipment rising at only a 7.2 percent rate. Economists had expected a second straight quarter of double-digit growth. Business spending on structures and intellectual property products also slowed. Data on Tuesday suggested further moderation in the pace of equipment investment in the fourth quarter, but it is still expected to remain strong enough to keep the economy on a higher growth pace. While growth in consumer spending decelerated to a 1.8 percent pace from the second-quarter's 2.5 percent pace, it still contributed 1.22 percentage points to GDP growth. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The moderate pace of consumer spending helped keep inflation pressures under wraps during the quarter. A price index in the GDP report rose at a 1.2 percent rate in the third quarter after advancing at a 2.3 percent pace in the prior period. A core price measure that strips out food and energy costs increased at only a 1.4 percent pace, slowing sharply from the second quarter's 2 percent rate. Declining gasoline prices and accelerating job growth, which is expected to lift wages, will provide tailwinds for consumer spending in the fourth quarter. If you thought this classic horror movie was about a haunted house, see if this scenario sounds familiar: An idealistic young couple buys a home that sounds too good to be true. Once they're mortgaged to the hilt, problems start to crop up. They can't leave, they can't stay, and an unseen evil force starts to tear their family apart.

Monday, October 27, 2014

Are you too old to buy stocks?

One of the worst things about getting older is that it seems like nobody wants you to have any fun. You have to be more careful about your health. When you exercise, you're supposed to keep your heart rate in a safe zone. Some retirees even face having their driver's licenses taken away once they reach a certain age.

It's much the same with investing. After spending a lifetime making investing decisions and gaining valuable experience in the stock market, you'll hear most financial planners tell you that you should take a more conservative approach with less stock exposure. They'll cite the risk of owning stocks and say it's too high once you get older.

Consider your own situation

For many people, that logic makes sense. When you're young, you have time on your side, with decades before you'll need whatever money you save for retirement. With all of that time ahead of you, you can afford to take some big risks -- and even if your investments don't do well at first, it won't be fatal to your long-term financial prospects. That makes high-growth stocks a viable option, even when their prices can fluctuate much more wildly than the overall stock market.

On the other hand, as you approach or enter retirement, you no longer have the luxury of a long time horizon to weather stock market downturns. You need that money now, and if the next market crash happens to hit you at just the wrong moment, you may have to sell at very low prices just to pay your bills.

The concept that you should reduce your allocation to stocks is so universally accepted that certain types of mutual funds do it automatically. Target retirement funds change their investment strategy gradually over time to accommodate your changing risk tolerance. Yet even though these funds make investing automatic, they aren't able to handle all of the specific needs that you may have.

Why one-size-fits-all might not fit you

Reducing stock exposure as you get older only addresses one risk that investors face: the! potential for falling stock prices. But that's not the only risk people have to deal with as they move toward retirement. Inflation is a huge threat to your long-term prospects, even if your portfolio is big enough to cover your costs at the beginning of your retirement years.

Low interest rates have been a big thorn in retirees' sides lately. Even if you lock up a $1 million portfolio in 10-year Treasury bonds, you'll only earn about $27,500 at current rates in order to cover expenses each year. Even if that's enough right now, your portfolio value will remain locked at that $1 million mark, and it won't be long before rising costs eat away the purchasing power of your fixed income.

Stocks, on the other hand, offer not only prices that rise over time but also rising dividends. Many well-known companies have histories of raising their dividend payouts annually for decades. When they push their dividends higher, it provides extra income that retirees can use to keep up with the impact of inflation. Moreover, that income can prevent you from having to sell shares at inopportune moments.

That said, some fortunate people have enough wealth that they can tolerate the risk of market downturns. For them, a typical retirement plan might involve selling some stocks every year to supplement other sources of retirement income.

You can protect against the risk of a market drop by keeping enough money in safer investments to give your stocks a chance to recover. Even though this strategy involves keeping several years' worth of expenses in bonds, CDs, or cash, it still gives you the ability to keep a substantial fraction of your portfolio in assets that will provide you a better return.

As an example, if you had retired in 2007 following this strategy, you might have chosen to forgo selling stocks in 2008 and 2009, waiting until the market recovered to sell and replenish your cash reserves.

Getting more conservative as you grow older is a basic rule of thumb, and it can be helpfu! l for beg! inning investors to follow. The better choice, though, is to weigh the risks of different investment strategies and pick the one that will work best for you. That means you won't have to give up the fun of stock investing no matter how old you get.

The Motley Fool is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news, analysis and commentary designed to help people take control of their financial lives. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY.

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Friday, October 24, 2014

Mawer New Canada Fund Investment Newsletter Q3 2014

The U.S. economy continued to show signs of progress this quarter. The labour market improved, inflation was subdued, and manufacturing and capital expenditures indicated that an expansion is likely underway. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve continued to taper its asset purchase program and communicated its plans to cease this program as of October.

Fear that a withdrawal of economic stimulus will cause higher bond yields has not materialized thus far, as yields have actually decreased during this period. The next phase in the Fed's efforts to normalize monetary policy will be to raise interest rates; a process that most investors anticipate will begin sometime in 2015. Unfortunately, economic conditions outside of the U.S. were not as rosy. In Europe, the latest economic data indicates that growth stagnated while unemployment and industrial overcapacity remained stubbornly high. Geo-political tension between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Scottish referendum on independence, created additional uncertainty that weighed on European sentiment. To encourage growth and combat a deflationary scenario, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced their version of an asset purchase program, or quantitative easing. By acquiring non-performing loans from European bank balance sheets, the ECB hopes that the banks will renew credit to corporations, thereby promoting growth. However, while European banks certainly need to clean up their books, it is unknown whether the demand for the additional credit truly exists. This "pushing on a string" argument is top of mind among many investors.

In Japan, GDP contracted sharply this quarter as both consumer spending and capital expenditure declined. In part, this was in response to the sales tax increase from 5% to 8%. This suggests that there is much uncertainty whether Prime Minister Abe's economic reforms will reinvigorate growth in Japan and pull the nation out of its long-standing deflationary quagmire. Meanwhile, in China, the banking system remains under pressure given the abundance of bad loans linked to an overheated real estate market. It is unclear how authorities will tackle this program, but the result of their actions could have a far-reaching global economic impact. Overall, the global economic picture is mixed, with evidence suggesting that the growth outlook is deteriorating. But this is balanced by an absence of inflationary pressure in the developed world and monetary policies that remain extremely accommodative. Consequently, global equity markets were relatively flat in local currency terms. Chart A outlines the quarterly performance, expressed in Canadian dollars, of some of the notable equity indices around the world.

Unquestionably, the rise in the MSCI World Index (C$) and the S&P 500 Index (C$) were primarily driven by strong U.S. dollar returns, which masked an otherwise lackluster quarter for most of the world's equity markets. Though Japan and some other Asian markets joined the U.S. on the positive side of the ledger, equity markets throughout much of Europe were decidedly negative. German and French markets now rest in negative territory on a year-to-date basis, with several other European countries flirting with a similar fate.

A sharp correction in oil, natural gas, and several other commodity prices proved to be a difficult headwind for Canadian equity markets to overcome. With the Energy and Materials sectors accounting for approximately 38% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, and over 49% of the BMO Small Cap Index, the losses endured by companies operating in these sectors dragged down the overall market. We should not overlook how regional divergences in equity returns were significantly influenced by currency movements this quarter. Due to the relative strength of the U.S. economy, the Federal Reserve is further along the path of interest rate normalization than many of its developed peers. Thus, the expectation for higher rates in the U.S., and potentially more easing in other regions of the world, propelled the U.S. dollar higher this quarter. Its status as a safe haven currency in times of crisis — and there have been no shortages of geo-political tensions of late — lent further support to its ascent. Its appreciation versus the Canadian dollar was approximately 4.9% this quarter, whereas gains versus the Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and Australian dollar were even more pronounced.

The implications for Canadian investors were twofold. First, investments held in U.S. dollars were bolstered by nearly 5% when converted to Canadian dollars. This turned a mere 1.1% gain in the S&P 500 in U.S. dollar terms into a much more impressive 6.1% gain in Canadian dollars. Second, investments denominated in the other aforementioned currencies lost value due to the translation effect.

Chart B notes the magnitude of this effect from a Canadian perspective.

Market Overview

Chart A

Q3 2014 Equity Index Performance (C$)

Meanwhile, with a mediocre and unbalanced growth outlook, central banks continued to provide accommodative monetary policy. In general, developed market bond yields moved modestly lower this quarter. While this was most apparent in Europe, yields in Canada also retreated, with the 10-year Government of Canada bond yield declining from 2.24% to 2.15%. This was one of the factors leading the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index to a 1.1% gain. Performance was positive across the Federal, Provincial, and Corporate sectors, with Provincials leading the way, like they did last quarter. As expected in a declining yield environment, with other factors held constant, longer-term bonds outperformed short and mid-term securities. Chart C summarizes the performance of the various components of the Canadian bond market.

How Did We Do?

In absolute terms, Mawer's performance was rather uneventful this quarter. The Balanced strategy (gross of fees) gained 1.0% with most of the underlying asset classes performing within a narrow range of this figure. Results were mixed on a relative basis with most asset classes closely tracking their underlying benchmark. The exceptions were the U.S. Equity strategy that lagged the S&P 500 Index (C$) by 2.3% and the New Canada strategy that outpaced its benchmark by over 10%. Chart D highlights the quarterly performance (gross of fees) of various Mawer strategies relative to their benchmarks.

The 1.6% decline in the International Equity strategy slightly trailed the 1.3% loss in the MSCI EAFE Index (C$). Our security selection in Europe resulted in a decline of 4.8% among our European companies compared to a 2.4% decline among European companies in the MSCI EAFE Index. Our German selections were especially disappointing as they shed over 12% this quarter, led by a 17% loss in BASF, a diversified chemicals company, and an 11% decline in BMW. Fortunately this was offset by strong security selection within Asia ex-Japan, where we have allocated over 17% of the portfolio, and enjoyed average returns that exceeded 10%. China Mobile (CHL), one of our recent additions to the portfolio, gained over 26% this quarter as it continued to benefit from a dominant position in China's telecom market. Our addition of China Mobile to the portfolio in April is a good example of Mawer's bottom-up process at work. In the months leading up to our initial purchase of the company, its share price had been in a steady decline as investors seemed to be overly worried with short-term issues. Our discounted cash flow approach, however, focuses on the long-term cash flow generating ability of the business rather than placing heavy emphasis on the near-term. This analysis identified China Mobile as trading at a significant discount to what we believe is its true value, thereby offering the potential for above average future returns. As we've expressed in previous quarters, we've been actively re-allocating capital from businesses that appear to be fully valued towards businesses that we believe are more reasonably priced. Not every new addition instantly yields a 26% return as China Mobile did this quarter, but it's a good example of the potential benefit of following a disciplined approach.

Although the 3.9% gain in the U.S. Equity strategy represented the highest absolute return this quarter, it also underperformed its benchmark by the widest margin as it trailed the S&P 500 Index (C$) by 2.3%. This can be attributed to poor security selection, where we modestly underperformed across several sectors. Generally, our underperformance wasn't from selecting companies that underperformed, but from omitting companies in the S&P 500 Index that performed exceptionally well over the last three months. For example, the eight companies we own in the Information Technology sector represent approximately 20% of our portfolio, and collectively they rose by approximately 6.1% this quarter. But the overall sector increased by 9.9%. Looking closer, we see this sector was driven higher by companies we don't own, such as Facebook (FB) (+23%), Yahoo (YHOO) (+22%), and Apple (AAPL) (+14%). These are businesses that we have considered for our portfolios but concluded that they did not meet our criteria of having sustainable competitive advantages that can create wealth in the long-run, while also being attractively valued. Lagging the benchmark in the short-term is disappointing, but we believe that we can outperform over the long-term by following our disciplined, bottom-up approach.

We believe that straying from our approach in order to invest in companies like Facebook, which currently trades at about 80 times earnings, is not prudent for long-term investors.

The Global Equity strategy lagged its benchmark by approximately 1.0% this quarter. Our underweight position in U.S. equities relative to the benchmark proved detrimental. Security selection in the Information technology sector was also weak, led by a decline of almost 15% in Samsung. The Global Small Cap Equity strategy lost 0.2% this quarter, but outperformed the Russell Global Small Cap Index (C$) that shed 2.0%. An overweight position in Europe did not prove favourable, but our minimal exposure to the weak Energy sector, and strong security selection across numerous sectors, more than compensated for this decision.

Our Canadian Equity strategy gained 0.7% while the S&P/TSX Composite Index lost 0.6%. The Energy and Materials sectors account for approximately 38% of the S&P/TSX Composite Index, but less than 18% of our portfolio. Given that these were the two weakest sectors this quarter, our outperformance was primarily attributed to this positioning. This was partially offset by weaker security selection, particularly in the Financials and Industrials sectors.

In absolute terms, the 1.4% gain in our New Canada strategy was modest, but this was significantly greater than the 8.8% loss in the BMO Small Cap Index. Emphasizing the Financials sector and being underweight the Materials sector proved to be favourable, but most of our outperformance was attributed to excellent security selection throughout the portfolio. For example, Materials companies within the BMO Small Cap Index lost 14% this quarter, whereas our selections gained over 10%, led by Intertape Polymer (TSX:ITP), a Quebec-based packaging company that rose approximately 38%. The Industrials sector shed over 7%, but our selections gained over 5%, led by an 18% gain in Logistec (TSX:LGT.A), another Quebec-based business that provides cargo handling and other services to North American ports.

Finally, our Canadian Bond strategy gained 0.9% this quarter, modestly trailing the 1.1% return of the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond Index. Security selection was strong among our Federal securities, but weaker in the Provincial and Corporate sectors. Tim Hortons bonds reacted negatively to the proposed merger with Burger King as this is expected to increase the degree of leverage in the business. Although we had been cautious regarding this investment and held just 1.5% of the portfolio in Tim Hortons securities at the time of the announcement, the losses that arose from the proposed merger were significant enough to detract from the overall performance of the strategy.

Portfolio Positioning

Although the U.S. economy appears to be on solid footing, growth in Europe has stagnated, and China, like many other developing economies, is experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. It's plausible that this deterioration can be remedied with additional monetary stimulus and structural reforms, and global growth can re-accelerate. But it's also possible that this is a harbinger of things to come; that is, we may be entering a phase of slower global growth, which may be a precursor for deflation. How and when central banks transition from accommodative monetary policy to more normalized conditions will be a delicate task, and likely a predominant theme in the years to come.

Given this murky outlook, we continue to believe that diversification is the primary tool in building resilient portfolios. We have a modest bias towards equities given our belief that cash and bonds offer limited upside in the current environment. But we are cognizant that should slower growth occur, and a deflationary scenario follow, cash and bonds will likely provide more downside protection than equities. Rather than speculate on how the world will unfold and aggressively position our portfolios for one particular outcome, we feel investors are better served striving for resilience to multiple outcomes, even if that means foregoing higher returns in the near-term.

Within equities, we continue to emphasize global equities relative to Canadian companies and currently have a bias to U.S. equities relative to European or Asian companies. This reflects not only our positive outlook on the U.S. economy, but also our belief that American companies benefit from longer-term structural advantages relative to their global peers. For example, a reliable source of low cost energy offers a cost advantage to American companies that few peers can replicate. And, as we are reminded with the recent escalation in geo-political tensions around the world, the U.S. dollar tends to be viewed as a safe haven currency. For Canadian investors, this introduces the possibility for a positive translation effect, as we experienced this quarter, lending additional resilience should geo-political tensions escalate. Although we continue to believe equities remain the most attractive asset class, discipline is needed to manage the risk of excessive valuations. This risk is mitigated by our continual effort to re-allocate capital from businesses that appear fully valued towards those that are more reasonably priced. Finally, the positioning of our bond portfolio continues to emphasize highly rated Corporate and Provincial securities. Within the Federal sector, we have enhanced yields by including Federalagency bonds. To provide additional resilience, we have positioned the portfolio to be less sensitive to changes in interest rates. This includes having a lower duration than that of our benchmark, as well as allocating approximately 10% of the portfolio to Floating Rate Note securities which offer capital protection in a rising yield environment.

Also check out: Mawer New Canada Fund Undervalued Stocks Mawer New Canada Fund Top Growth Companies Mawer New Canada Fund High Yield stocks, and Stocks that Mawer New Canada Fund keeps buying